JNB and NBO in the works?
 

An AC employee told this to my face... is it true? If so, awesome!

7593 nm to NBO
8303 nm to JNB

according to boeing, the 789 is rated at 8300nm. I doubt JNB is possible, and I have a hard time seeing a routing with a stop that would make financial sense.
Seems NBO is technically possible, but I don't have insight in whether there is an O/D market to sustain it.

Are there any freedoms that would allow YYZNBOJNB?

I think JNB is 8300 statute miles. If the 789 can do 8300 nautical miles, it would be no problem.

You've got your Nautical miles and Miles mixed up.

Its 7593 miles to NBO or 6660 NM. the 7878, 7879, 777L, and 777W can all fly it.

JNB is

7223 NM or 8300 Miles. Its about at the 7878 range max - keeping in mind AC has never let range max's stop it in the past (767-300 ER anyone...) 7879 has plenty of leg for - its rated to do 9500 miles, so even taking in winds and what not... 777L is obviously the best tool in the shed. It can just munch YYZ->JNB and slosh it down with a heavy load of cargo. The 777W could also do it at 9000 miles range... Granted it wouldn't be with much lift.

Keep in mind AC would know how many passengers are going Canada -> wherever connecting to another airline in the alliance and hitting JNB and NBO.

If its high enough they'll operate it themselves on a nonstop - which tends to further increase traffic.

I'd fly YVRYYZNBO monthly if AC flew it....

Been wondering a lot about AC to JNB lately. I used to hope it would happen, starting to think it will. Would be great
Not a chance 77W would be deployed JNBYYZ - it would be absolutely crippled due to max tyre speed, and hot/high conditions. Talking seat blocks approaching 200.
JNBYYZ has an ESAD around 7600nm leaving the 77L or, more likely, 789 as likely aircraft for the mission if it happens.
The NBO element told to the OP is, IMO, a way to mitigate payload restricitons issues exJNB and actually gives this notion more plausibility.
Routing YYZ-JNB-NBO-YYZ would be likely ... I would have assumed CPT would have been the airport, not NBO.

Cannot see AC operating distinct, separate flights to NBO and JNB

AC employees have told us lots of things to our faces over the years.
Fortunately most of us know better than to trust what we're told.

AC would really have to rely on connecting traffic from the US in order to make this one work.

It seems to be in line with their international strategy of increasing traffic through Canada.

I don't think that this is any different than them seeking new opportunities internationally.

I could see them running both these routes - NBO with a 788 and JNB with a 789.

I think there is lots of O&D both current and potential between Canada and JNB and AC could pick up lots of US traffic to augment Canadians going to NBO (first carrier offering non-stop service between East Africa and North America).

If they are planning these two, can Lagos be far behind?

Also wouldn't be surprised to see a Rouge flight YUL to Marrakesh.

JNB and NBO in the works?
 

Over my many years at AC, JNB is perhaps the most rumored new route. There have been reported YYZ-MAD-JNB/YYZ-LIS-JNB/ YYZ-GRU-JNB possible routings. Due to the operating economics including crew movements, this would be a non-stop or bust destination. With the intro of the 787-9, I would give YYZ-JNB 75% odds.

I think this applies to all airline employees, no matter whom they work for. Airline employees are notorious rumour mongers, as if they think working for the carrier makes them privy to the discussions in the executive suite.

On JNB, that's ULH flying, and while the 788 certainly is capable of going the distance, there are serious pilot issues that would have to be resolved. I'm not aware of whether the ULH issue stands between AC and ACPA, but I wonder if a JNB service could be launched without a letter of understanding. That being said, a JNB service might succeed because it's a pretty good yield, and a lot of the available connections over Europe are awful - NA flights tend to arrive in the AM while most departures to JNB or CPT depart in the evening. The shortest connecting flight I have seen is 21 hours via Dulles on UA, with a 1-hour stop in Dakar. Add an extra hour for the joys of US pre-clearance at YYZ. But most elapsed trip times are 25-40 hours. Emirates, for example, is, grosso modo, 24 hours southbound, 30 hours northbound.

Is JNB a possible choice? Sure. But I wonder if it's a wish list destination of AC's. It sure is a wish list destination of many here.

What other city pairs would you say are likely?

Which is why I am asking here... ;)

Just to clarify, the multi-stop routings were rumored in years past. I would say more China, India and a return of YYZ-ICN with stepped up frequency over the 3-weekly seasonal summer service seen in years past. For purely selfish reasons would love year-round YYZ-FCO.

I would be surprised, or we would've seen YUL-CMN mainline years ago as RAM has run 3 flights exYUL in one day during peek season.

And you should see the price they charge.

JNB-ATL currently flown by a Delta 77L is 8439mi vs. JNB-YYZ at 8303mi. Delta's flight is only blocked at 16h55m, add to that the 787's faster cruise speed and I bet AC could block it under 16h30m. I doubt ACPA would need to be further satisfied (A345 ULH ACPA delays were due to approving the physical crew rest space, IIRC).

So you're saying it will be mainline flying to Morocco?

From what I can tell the only bilateral with Kenya is for codeshare services, and the terms of the Canada-South Africa bilateral are not disclosed.

South African already does JFK-JNB with a A340 and IAD-JNB with a A330 , I can't see why US based passengers would prefer a transit through YYZ to fly to JNB with AC. SA is also a *A member.

No idea if there is enough O&D traffic between YYZ and JNB to sustain an AC flight in addition to the SA flights as well as One World airlines with a stop in Europe.

I have no effective predictive capabilities, but my wild guess would be AC will not be going to Morocco at all.

Or did I miss something about a new route there?

I hear otherwise. And apparently, you can predict the weather. :D

Then I got some REALLY bad news for you! LOL

C'mon, there's a graph for that :D:D:D

SA is also perpetually teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, and don't they frequently have to stop in Dakar due to fuel and weight restrictions? Their J class is nice with slightly uneven service in my recollection--certainly nothing so bad that I would avoid them.

Every time I have flown to/from JNB the J cabins have been totally full (TK, LX, SA) and the Y cabin looked at least full-ish. But there is certainly a lot of capacity to JNB and CPT today between all of the options in *A and OW not to mention the Gulf airlines. I would love to see the route, and my bet is that there is sufficient traffic from Canada and NE USA to support it.

1 free MLL drink to whoever can find out what this is:

http://i.imgur.com/eB4bucO.png

Hint: Tau = 0.5

No cheating.

24L can't play.

I see Jesus!

FWIW, I heard a SD say last week that JNB is coming soon.

SAA stops westbound to JFK, or at least they seem to schedule a DKR stop for JFK flights now. SAA's downgauge to A330 into IAD means stop both ways, everyday. Perfectly reasonable to assume pax might choose JNB-YYZ-ORD over JNB-DKR-JFK-ORD, for example, heck, JNB-YYZ-DCA might even get you downtown DC faster than JNB-DKR-IAD
What do you mean? How much O/D is there between ATL and JNB? I realize some level of O/D is required to make routes like this tick, but we're talking about a sector connecting gigantic hubs of two Alliance partners.
Think this is "when" not "if"

YYZ to JNB will be awesome.

It's a good business route and it's a good leisure route too. Cape Town is an amazing city if you haven't been.

Snow in Toronto today, Safari by tomorrow morning. :)

And I would not mind a re-fueling stop if required. e.g. Ile de Sal, Dakar, Morocco, Lagos (Nigeria) or even Portugal.

Also it may be possible that the route is YYZ-NBO-JNB.

They would have a LOT of data from all the connections to JNB/CPT that people take via Europe or Washington.

They even have data from the LHR codeshare that they have with SAA (which I'm flying out tonight on).

I would really like them to make a business case out of this.

Not a chance IMO. There's little doubt if AC adds SA, it will be YYZJNB. No a/c capability issues YYZ to SA, It's the return that's in question.

This is very similar to QF's DFW-SYD route. QF opted for BNE and more passengers/payload. Will AC opt for NBO/CPT or go at it non-stop?

Well ..... Assuming they even launch the route, that is.

It's either customer profitability against miles flown or probability of losing your luggage versus number of times you check your luggage. :p

You've inspired me to do another thread (and stop hijacking this one).

On the other hand, your second guess is actually quite good.

personally as someone with fam in CPT I would love to see a YYZ>JNB>CPT>YYZ triangle routing 3-4 times per week, that would be great.
I don't see AC flying into NBO (or anywhere in Africa outside of SA) I really don't.

AC would do better going into CPT rather than JNB. Mornings at JNB are a zoo as three or four A380s, a half dozen 777s, and another half dozen 747s and a bunch of A330/340s all arrive between 5a and 9a! Immigration lines are epic. Compare with arriving at CPT where there are three or four wide bodies arriving between the same hours, I just strolled through immigration! Onward connections are easy to JNB and a few provincial towns.

Of course one of the problems with flights to SAfrica is that the planes sit on the ground all day losing money! Never know why someone from Europe doesn't fly a daytime flight down there, depart at 8a and arrive around 9p...then depart before midnight to get back to Europe by noon next day.

If AC had rights to CPT or even JNB via a European city (with 5th freedom rights) it could do a regular early evening departure from YYZ, get into LHR or FRA or MUC at dawn, provision the plane and depart by mid-morning. Return flight could be a mid-to-late afternoon flight back across the Atlantic giving high utilization for a 788. This is much like NZ flies to LHR via LAX, giving passengers a land break for a couple of hours in the mid-point terminal.

AC has lots of planes coming and they need new routes so JNB seems as good as any.
Also from the number of deals on JNB in business class for the last year from YYZ, makes you wonder if other airlines have been aware of AC interest?

KLM has had lots of $2500 business class sales to JNB from Vancouver Calgary and Toronto.

AF and KLM have too many premium seats going empty into Africa, as well as being stung by EK and the other Gulf carriers across their route systems, so they've been deep discounting these routes to fill those seats, not to scare off AC. At the moment, things are fairly normal price-wise because there's considerable demand during the SAfrican summer, European/NAmerican winter.

Similar to east bound Trans Atlantic flights, overnight flight maximizes connection opportunities on both ends and saves traveler a full day and is preferred to a day flight. I guess the extra yield compensates for the lower utilization. This is the same for flights to South America where planes arrive in the morning sit there all day and fly back in the evening.

AC wouldn't extend a flight from LHR/FRA/MUC to South Africa since day time flight don't work well and it'd be a long trip for the crew, more than a week (extra cost for hotels) and requires an extra plane for a flight that's not much more competitive than other one stop options which would lead me to think it's be better just let LH handle it from there.

Of course, you have facts and figures to back this claim up, right?