Originally Posted by
ESpen36
Of course, cancelations can happen anytime, and indeed, are more likely to happen with flights that are super-early in the morning or super-late at night.
The goods news: if the OP is on the 1st flight out and there is a cancellation, then there are a # of options to still get to the East Coast on the same day. Will s/he still have a chance at an upgrade in the case of a cancellation? Unlikely - but then again, sticker upgrades are never a sure thing.
To the OP: take the earlier flight.