Originally Posted by aktchi

Good points. This is what I love about FT, to be able to learn from how experienced travelers think and decide about uncertainties.

Our IST-LHT BA flight teaches T5 at 11:20AM. AA has LHR-ORD departures from T3 at 10:15AM (not an issue), 2:15PM, and 4:30PM.

Pros for earlier flight (2:15PM): Smooth transfer if everything goes well.

Cons: More expensive. Maybe not enough time to spend at shops if they look interesting. A delay at IST could mess things up badly. (Although it is comforting today to think they would put us on the later flight, come January that flight may well have no seats.)

Pros for the later flight (4:30PM): Slightly cheaper. More cushion to absorb any delay from IST. More time to linger in shops if the are interesting.

Cons: Potential to get bored for 1-2 hours if the shops are not interesting. Last flight, so in case of "tech" we could end up paying for a night in a hotel.

So what is more likely: A delay at/from IST, or a cancellation at LHR? Put it this way and I think I am leaning towards the later flight.

I realize that these are all small possibilities and small considerations. In a way, I am thinking about it just because there is a choice and I have free time. If there was just one flight, either would have been fine.