I would have to generally side with the higher-expectations crowd. The point about liability being carried at low rates has been made and is telling, as it shows that airlines aggressively direct award redemption ability to seats that would have gone unfilled anyway.

And lest we forget, the airlines have made lots of money selling miles for use as incentives for non-flight activities. That's been directly responsible for the number of unredeemed miles getting so out of whack compared to the awards available. Then they come along and devalue...that's like issuing your own Monopoly money in exchange for real cash and then saying the Monopoly money is now worth only half what it was.

And finally, airlines are now also trying to milk change fees for award tickets as a big source of revenue. If you have a transcon AA award, for example, they could charge you $100 to make a change, or about the cost of flying one-way from Atlanta to L.A. on AirTran or JetBlue.

If the discounters could find a way to get people to Europe or Hawaii on awards through their own FF programs, they could pick off quite a bit of business from the Big 6, IMO.