I think we can all agree that the airline & whole travel industry is going through some chaos. Despite the fact that this chaos will present challenges for many people, it also presents others with opportunities. In my business we say, "Where there is chaos, there is money to be made."

There are going to be mileage winners and losers. Chances are the more educated you are about FF programs, the more you will win. Whereas the less educated will lose. All the more reason to keep reading FlyerTalk.

I have to believe somehow, someway, 50% of Flyertalkers will win, 30% will break even and 20% will lose out despite their best efforts. The average flyer will lose out and probably because they will panic and do something rash. For instance, last summer my sister redeemed 60,000 AP points for an economy YYZ-LHR. This is probably the most competitve international route out of YYZ. You can get discounts and there are lots of LCCs. At that time, you could definitely get $400-$600 ai. I offered for her to move the points to my account and I would buy her ticket. However, her 3 friends had already bought a ticket on the same AC flight, so it was too late.

For people with lifetime FF balances of less than 75,000 AND never having redeemed before, they will probably take the "bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush." Fares are rising and airlines look like they're going bankrupt. I think a lot of people will devalue their miles and book any reward they can get. I believe that behaviour will make reward availability less, but will probably stabilize FF mile value. It will help the airlines get those FF liabilities off the books cheaply.