Originally Posted by
sdsearch
if you cannot wait to take a flight until it's available on miles, and more of the flights you need to take are not available on miles even when they would be far cheaper on miles, that changes the whole equation...So it matters very little what the theory is of flight costs in cash and miles costs in miles.
You bring up a very good point, although the theory still matters very much... you are just suggesting that there is a variable I did not include. Availibility of redemption (or "redemption success") should be considered - that is your suggestion. 25K miles for a $500 ticket 50% of the time is not the same as 35K miles for a $700 ticket 20% of the time.
So, the question is: Has availibility changed substantially, and if so, how much? If redemption success has dropped from 50% to 40% while prices have moved from $300 to $500 and the mile quantity required has remained the same, mile value has still appreciated. I could give endless combinations as examples, but my point is that the *degree* of change of each variable is instrumental - not just the fact it has changed at all.
My personal experience has been that - and I am well aware that it may vary wildly from others, "the norm" - I have been able to redeem at roughly the same success rate for the past two years, while prices have risen about 50% for the routes I fly and mile redemption levels for these routes have remained flat. Fees are slightly higher, but not substantial. Net change for me: miles are worth substantially more.