The other thing that would support the OP's hypothesis is the speed in which the market is changing. Yes, the airlines are starting to raise the redemption levels, but for the most part, these changes are rare and not immediate.

So what happens under rapidly changing conditions - under an economy where oil can jump $10 a barrel in one day? I do think the frequent fliers will learn to accept award chart changes, but we will not accept charts that change as often as airfares do. The airlines may reset the charts to absorb $150 oil, but if they do that and then oil hits $200 weeks later, it will be hard for them to reset the levels again.

That inherent lag time between cash fare increases and award fare increases does represent an opportunity for holders of miles, and an increased value of a mile itself.

The caveat on all this is the availability of capacity controoled seats. Those can be reduced as quickly as fares increase. But, if you're able to be flexible with your plans enough to find flights with available seats, I do think that the coming months will present more opportunities to redeem your miles getting whatever benchmark "value" from them that you look for.