Well, if any get terminated without the airline going under (and the airline waving its "We reserve the right to cancel with 60 days notice at any time" clause in the air), it'd be pretty bad.

Short of that, you could get more like Delta that are trying to lock leisure flyers out of both upgrades and ability to earn elite status. That'll only accelerate the trend toward airlines like AirTran and Southwest.

And the programs that don't mimic Delta could imitate OnePass, with its bad award availability for transoceanic flights and stealth 50% "EasyPass" devaluation. "Sorry, no seats are available for three months, but we do have EasyPass if you'd like to spend twice the miles."