The other angle to consider, in addition to financial stability of the airline you're banking on, is that these partnerships change from time to time. So if you bank on one in the hopes they'll be partners with QF 3 years down the road, you stand to be potentially disappointed if the partnership dissolves (CO is notorious for changing its partners -- they dropped AF, F9, and HP in the last year alone).

You may want to simply bank on QF. Safer bet than AA, and they're profitable, and presumably they'll continue to fly between the U.S. and Oz.

Then again, after the stunt BA just pulled, your mileage earning ability may be greatly reduced overnight on a whim, so banking for any award 3 years out may not be a successful strategy...