Indeed, on many routes, especially the long hauls, it's as much about manipulating supply/demand through capacity cuts as it is about fuel. Airlines will test the higher prices on bookings well in advance and do sales only 3-6 weeks out if they have to (they may not have to).

IMO summer's a good time to do a nice, long trip to "cheap" countries in SE Asia. In those places it's considered fall ("summer" is March through May) or the weather is actually on your side (Indonesia), and some pockets like the east coasts of Thailand or Malaysia are at their best. Many places are on low-season pricing, as well.