If it doesn't apply to elites, that's great - for existing elites.

For Joe Sixpack who finds himself traveling a bit more than in the past and wants to earn elite status somewhere, though, is it going to be worth flying his first 25K miles carry-on only? Or will he just go with a different airline? I think I would, in that situation.

Of course, I almost always fly carry-on only as it is! I'm just going somewhere for a month, not moving there.