a friend of mine is getting married on Feb 8, a saturday...I am thinking about flying HKG-SFO on Feb 8 arriving early morning...then coming back SFO-HKG Feb 9 morning...on UA...

I will be using a couple of SWU's to upgrade...but now there's no NC available at all...but I need to decide on the routing before i issue the ticket, before I can waitlist on the upgrade...so I wanna know, based on your experience, is HKG-SFO v.v. easier to clear for upgrade or is HKG-NRT-SFO v.v. better ?

if it matters, my HKG-SFO will be on a Saturday while SFO-HKG will be on a Sunday...and it's the weekend right after Chinese New Year...

thanks a lot !!

(PS another option I have is to issue an award ticket for this - F not available but J probably is, on a combination of NH/UA/etc - should I rather burn the miles now ?)