I don't know that I agree with you simply because it isn't as predictable as you say it is.

The US domestic airlines are in terrible shape. I think the workers may accept large wage cuts, especially the pilots who make the most money. They must realize they have no choice, that these could be their last jobs in the airline business.

The mechanics are another story, if only because apparently they are in greater demand and harder to replace. But it may not matter.

The other unions might bend more and let the mechanics skate with few cuts. This is the market talking -- if mechanics are worth more, then they will end up getting paid more or accepting fewer reductions.

Can UA survive if the pilots accept a 40% cut and most other workers accept cuts? And the airline cuts routes? I don't know, but I would expect that it could. Coupled with renegotiated leases, UA's fixed costs could plummet rapidly.