Last Gulf War USA Domestic traffic dropped 5% and International traffic by about 40% (compare to the aftermath of 9/11).

Fuel costs doubled in months during the last Gulf War. They are likely to rise again although, with Russia producing more, there is likely to be another steep rise - compounded by the Venezuela problems.

Long haul business travel is one of the first areas to go...this is the profitable stuff...this hurts the airlines.

CAPEX is down - Aeroplanes are being stored in the desert an OPEX is down too - how many people have been laid off..? Capacity was slashed after the 09/11 and is now only being re-built on clearly profitable routes.

The result.....more airline bankruptcies in a prolonged Gulf War 2, more cost cutting as airlines react to the war and begin to remove services (when the services are reduced sufficiently, then the costs will stabilise and go up slightly).

Unless a really ballsy airline (with the attitude of South West, Ryanair or Easy Jet) comes along and pushes the market hard, I suspect that fares will harden in general and there will be less discounting and less mileage travel available.