<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by rockdoc:
My experience has been that if Y shows no availability then the plane is WAY oversold. I flew ORD-LHR this past summer on a flight that showed no availabilty in any classes for several weeks prior to the flight. I was told at the gate that the flight (a 777) was oversold by something like 55 seats! That is almost 20% oversold.</font>
Which can be an indicator, but you (and the agents) really don't know what the story is until it's almost departure time.
I've been bumped off a 757 oversold by 20. I've not been bumped off a 757 oversold by 34. I thought I had a sure thing on a 319 that was sold out for weeks, until I showed up and they changed equipment to a 320. Just the other day, I was on a F0 Y1 737-400 on another carrier that I thought had a good shot. They same-day substituted a 737-700 and ended up with seats to spare. One time I had the reverse: they substitued a 737 for a partly full 757 and all of a sudden needed volunteers.
Bottom line, there are so many factors it's impossible to predict. Just inform the agent of your willingness to volunteer and wait it out patiently. If it happens, it happens.
Rule of thumb, though, if you see infrequent travelers getting really angry at the gate agent by not getting a seat assignment (they're getting a confirmed DM card instead), it's a really good sign they'll need you.
