FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Implications for BA of a LH takeover of BD?
Old Apr 28, 2008 | 11:36 am
  #32  
Land-of-Miles
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There is about as much chance of VS taking over BD as there is that VS will install gyms on their A380s. SRB is rather more mouth than trousers. VS do not have the money to buy BD, they are unlikely to find the money to buy BD given that their only significant external investor is trying to bail out and I suspect that SMB is too smart a businessman to handover control of BD for a minority stake in a poorly capitalised business as the global airline industry enters a major downturn.

LH have practically 30% of BD and their close partner SK have another 20%. LH also have a call option which implies that they can force a sale (but perhaps not the price at whch that sale must take place). No amount of SRB's smoke and mirrors antics is going to change the inevitable conclusion, BD will be sold to LH which I think will be a very welcome development.

Similarly there is not a snowball in hells chance that BA will be able to acquire BD even without the blocking stake held by LH/SK. Even if the regulators would allow it (which is highly unlikely) the shareholders would surely raise objections. Think about the impact upon the business model, it would blow the T5 focussed approach clean out of the water, leaving BA Ops spread across 3 terminals. Whilst histrically BA have been spread across 3 terminals they have only had scale in 2. The whole point of T5 for BA is to concentrate resources in one place, if they could buy BD, then the whole T5 migration and efficiency drive would have been a collossal waste of time and shareholder funds.
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