Originally Posted by
martin33
UA is in probably the worst financial shape of the big six at present.
I dunno. DL is right up there, or down there, too.
Intra-Star merger means least routing disruptions for customers.
I can assure you, what's good for customers is the last factor Doug is considering.
CO seems to want little to do with UA, and AA appears to be now in the midst of offering CO an alliance opportunity short of full merger.
In fact the CO/UA merger is generally characterized as "all but a done deal," and of all possible combos I think AA/CO is the one that would upset regulators. An allied AA/CO would own the state of Texas completely.
Knifing UA's weakest hub (IAD) and US's weakest hub (LAS) would be an obvious starting point for "consolidating" and leave a clear role for PHL that would not be present in an AA or CO deal.
How do you know they wouldn't knife PHL and fortify IAD? Dulles is terrible, yes, but IMO the only cure for PHL is total destruction. A US/UA deal would be a license to do to PHL what US did to PIT... and PHL deserves it a lot more.
I don't disagree that UA/US would be better than UA/CO, but I think the odds are longer.