I'm planning a trip SFO-SYD and back for vacation in February. Today I was able to confirm a Saver Coach Award and waitlist for a Saver Business Award and Saver First Award.

Sevaral questions:

1. What are the odds of my clearing the waitlist? I'm a 2P (Premier).

2. How will I rank in priority against (1) paid coach trying to upgrade w/SWU, (2) paid coach trying to upgrade w/miles and (3) nonrevs?

3. What might my relative odds of upgrading be if I instead bought an upgradable coach ticket and tried to use miles or an SWU (my friend will gift me some he won't use)?

Thanks in advance for your help. I talked to several res agents and they didn't know the intricacies of the process well enough to answer my questions.

I really don't want to be in Y for 14 hours!