As close to zero as zero gets. I have stayed here dozens of times as a Plat, on many "one-night" stays (which are the prime targets for big upgrades). Peak seasons, off seasons, shoulder seasons, you name it. I have never once received anything other than a standard room

. You're a silver? Well... what can I say about
your chances for anything

. Frankly, none of the 'view' rooms at this property are even that special, so there isn't much value in that here either.
If you're a plat on SPG though, the Westin down the street is perhaps one of the best hotels for plat upgrades out there, into some phenomenal suites ^. I MUCH prefer that hotel. As a SPG gold, I would think you'd have a better chance for something there vs. a Marriott silver.
The Marriott is visciously overpriced for what it is, IMHO.