Originally Posted by knope2001

The dire nature of high fuel prices is leading several airlines to significantly cut back on their schedules and/or park aircraft. With Midwest, we have already seen the parking of high-cost Skyway aircraft and the pullback of some 717 and CRJ markets. We also…at least so far…have not seen the type of AirTran retaliation in long-haul M80 markets that I personally expected. Things would be different at $50/bbl oil I suspect.

The desire to replace the M80 has been around for a few years now, but it’s not going to happen in time to mitigate the current high fuel prices. That leads me to wonder this: What would happen if Midwest deemed it necessary to pull the M80’s out of scheduled service? Obviously it would mean no nonstop MKE-west coast. But just how much would Midwest have to scale back if the M80’s were parked?

To find out, I took the flying from the April schedule (24 lines of 717 flying and 20 lines of CRJ flying) and reworked it to see what a new summer schedule might look like. Given the already-announced cuts coming in MCI-Florida flying, schedule slack built in with hopes of winning DCA slots, and pre-existing MCI schedule slack, it wasn’t as draconian as I thought it might be.

Here are the changes I came up with…everything not mentioned could be unchanged:

MKE-West Coast nonstops gone, replaced by:
LAX 2x/day 1-stop thru flights
SFO 1x/day 1-stop thru + 1x/day connection
SEA 1x/day 1-stop thru + 1x/day connection
SAN 1x/day connection

Market drops:
MKE-STL (CRJ)
MKE-FLL goes seasonal

Market reductions of 1x each (new frequency in parenthesis)
MKE to MCO (2) LAS (3) MCI (7) DFW (4) PIT (3 CRJ)
MCI to BOS (2) MKE (7) SAN (1)

Market increases of 1x each (new frequency in parenthesis)
MCI to SFO (2) and SEA (2)

Downgrades from 717 to CRJ
MSP goes to 5x CRJ (currently 1x 717 + 4x CRJ)
PHL goes to 1x 717 + 4x CRJ (currently 2x 717 + 3x CRJ)
EWR receives no planned 717 upgrade (remains 5x CRJ)

Other than these changes, the entire remainder of the system could remain intact. Markets where the M80 would be replaced by the 717 (such as MKE-PHX) would of course see fewer seats. But other than the loss of west coast nonstops from Milwaukee, the rest of the reductions are really pretty nominal.

I’m not saying that Midwest *will* park the M80’s, or that they necessarily should. However with all the turmoil and cuts in the industry, I think it’s relevant and interesting to wonder what *might* happen if they did.