That only works if you stay at properties with low occupancy rates. I don't always get upgraded if a hotel is sold out or close to that point.

As for the value of gold/platinum, it really depends on your stay pattern. Most of my stays are on weekends, but most of these stays have at least one shoulder night (Thursday or Sunday). Thus, I still get the CL benefit, and I stay at FS Marriott properties that give free breakfast on weekends for gold/platinum members.

Also, if you plan on using at least one EEO for a free weekend night, it will go towards recovering your cost.