The fact that upgrades aren't GUARANTEED doesn't at all negate the value of a gold card's LIKELIHOOD to score me an upgrade. A likely upgrade may have less value than a guaranteed upgrade, but it's still of far greater value than no possibility of upgrade. And the sort of upgrade I usually got as a gold holder was to rooms or suites of non-trivial price difference. Two or three upgrades would certainly be worth an expenditure of $200 to me (and any further upgrades that year would be gravy).

The notion of earning my extra points to buy gold (or at least maintain silver) by staying in "deal" locations to catch premium offers is an interesting one, but it would of course depend on my desire to travel to those locations, and my corollary expenses (e.g. food and travel) would almost surely make those points more expensive than the $12.50 per 1000 I could pay here and now.

One question here is the differential between likelihood (and quality) of upgrade to silvers vs golds. When i was silver, I sometimes did get upgraded. As a gold, I certainly got upgraded more. But silver's been greatly diluted (by the credit card deal, for one thing), so silver upgrades may be a dimmer prospect these days.

But here's an interesting question....would it be practical/possible to pay for upgrade at check-in, after being refused a free upgrade? E.g. take room key, go to room, then immediately return and complain of room smallness and ask if there's anything "only a little more expensive" that's more spacious. I'd think under such conditions, if the hotel's not real full, a clerk would be likely to offer you the most painless possible upgrade price, if not an out-and-out freebie (so long as you're friendly and polite, of course, and do have that silver card to establish you're not an out-and-out newbie). Especially if you check in on the late side, as I usually do (so the better rooms aren't going to fill up). Anyone ever try that?