Is there any way to gauge your chances of an UG on one of these high load routes ? I have a family member on the WL for UA895 ORD-HKG on 4/11 - there are supposed to be 50+ seats for sale (unless the new config 744 starts on that route by then, in which case alot fewer open seats) and 6 on the waitlist before him. He doesn't have elite status (but he's using my miles and I'm PE). Any thoughts ?