<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Skylink USA:
Terenz predictions may be correct. This is anyone's guess. One of many scenarios may include:
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2004: DEN closes. Chance of NW or CO buying it but I wouldn't count on it. MIA closes, DL picks up routes for free after UA can't sell it. Either that or Air Tran bids and DL ends up with the routes.
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Why would UA allow its DEN hub to close? This is not only a critical part of their hub and spoke network, but is a virtual fortress hub for them since CO pulled out and Western Pacific folded! Frontier has very limited routes, so flights on many of UAs routes in and out of DEN can be priced however they wish, contributing significantly to their potential profitability/reduction of losses. Unless UA folds, I don't see them pulling out of Denver, even if they could sell their interest there at a profit, since that would impair their national network operations.
Further, it seems unlikely that even the Bush administration would allow UA to fold. While most of its routes, MP members, equipment, and employees would probably be picked up by other carriers, the effect on their bondholders, creditors, etc. would be too devastating. Additionally, the new & improved Bush economic team is probably smart enough to realize the wider negative impact this would have on both the national economy and the securities and capital markets.