I'm not even sure how much difference it will make to the big picture. It seems basically geared for people who flew one year, didn't fly the next, and will fly more this year. It seems to me that while there are certainly people that fit that bill, the majority of "frequent fliers" are either just starting out this year, or flew at least enough to earn/maintain status last year, thus making them ineligible for this offer.
I wonder how many people there really are in my position in the grand scheme of things. For all we know so far it's additionally based on how close one got to 2p last year (I had 20k EQMs), which may make it a very small target segment indeed.
It will be interesting to see if this causes a major shift (like the 2x EQM promo) or ends up being completely insignificant.