FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: A festering pit; a pustule of a fistula set athwart the miasmic swamps of the armpit of the Gulf of Mexico - a Godforsaken wart upon a dark crevasse of the World. (IAH)
Programs: UA Lifetime Gold, BA Silver, Marriott Lifetime Plat, Hilton Gold, Accor Gold
Posts: 31,403
Forgot to add... I doubt IAH would lose LHR or AMS (too much oil traffic to AMS). Also, I think it doubtful that IAH-CDG would go as well (Total Oil is HQed there). In fact, IAH may even gain an IAH-FRA on UA/CO metal. The route appears to be doing well enough for LH that they're putting a 744 onto it. I could also envision LH starting up MUC-IAH. Also, I don't think IAH-NRT will disappear, as CO has a monopoly on the route (and seems to be doing okay with it). Given that UA has a hub at NRT, that would only increase traffic on the route (or cause it to remain sustainably static, given that NW also has a hub operation there).
All in all, but for the potential loss of some service to secondary West Coast markets, I think this will turn out to be a net positive for IAH in nearly all respects. It appears that even if we are headed into an economic downturn, that big oil should continue to reap near-record profits. That means full front cabins out of IAH on high-yielding long-haul oil routes. If CO/UA are *A, I can assure you that CO will be itching to codeshare on the SQ IAH-SVO route ASAP. That route is yet another license to print money.