Originally Posted by
Anglo Large Clawed Otter
The real question is the Caribbean.
I picked 6 random Carribean destinations (AUA, SDQ, SJU, MBJ, UVF and GCM) and from the 4 airports in question (IAD, ATL, IAH and EWR).
ATL is the best overall location (no surprise there) but not the best for each destination and in each case one of the other three is no more than 200 miles further. Sure that CASM adds up ($3K per flight, on average) but not so much that CO/UA can't be competitive, and if the feeder networks are running the way they should then it won't be a problem at all.
Code:
From To Distance
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) GCM (19°17'34"N 81°21'28"W) 1534 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) GCM (19°17'34"N 81°21'28"W) 1374 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) GCM (19°17'34"N 81°21'28"W) 1145 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) GCM (19°17'34"N 81°21'28"W) 1006 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) UVF (13°43'59"N 60°57'09"W) 2021 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) UVF (13°43'59"N 60°57'09"W) 2007 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) UVF (13°43'59"N 60°57'09"W) 2461 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) UVF (13°43'59"N 60°57'09"W) 2012 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) AUA (12°30'05"N 70°00'55"W) 1957 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) AUA (12°30'05"N 70°00'55"W) 1877 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) AUA (12°30'05"N 70°00'55"W) 2020 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) AUA (12°30'05"N 70°00'55"W) 1715 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) MBJ (18°30'13"N 77°54'48"W) 1545 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) MBJ (18°30'13"N 77°54'48"W) 1408 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) MBJ (18°30'13"N 77°54'48"W) 1351 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) MBJ (18°30'13"N 77°54'48"W) 1117 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) SDQ (18°25'47"N 69°40'08"W) 1557 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) SDQ (18°25'47"N 69°40'08"W) 1488 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) SDQ (18°25'47"N 69°40'08"W) 1799 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) SDQ (18°25'47"N 69°40'08"W) 1389 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) SJU (18°26'22"N 66°00'07"W) 1608 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) SJU (18°26'22"N 66°00'07"W) 1571 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) SJU (18°26'22"N 66°00'07"W) 2007 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) SJU (18°26'22"N 66°00'07"W) 1547 mi
Looking a bit further south (CCS, LIM, EZE, GIG, SCL) it
breaks down like this:
From To Initial
Heading Distance
Code:
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) SCL (33°23'35"S 70°47'09"W) 5102 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) SCL (33°23'35"S 70°47'09"W) 4995 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) SCL (33°23'35"S 70°47'09"W) 4646 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) SCL (33°23'35"S 70°47'09"W) 4695 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) GIG (22°48'32"S 43°14'37"W) 4800 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) GIG (22°48'32"S 43°14'37"W) 4791 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) GIG (22°48'32"S 43°14'37"W) 5016 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) GIG (22°48'32"S 43°14'37"W) 4735 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W) 5290 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W) 5217 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W) 5062 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) EZE (34°49'20"S 58°32'09"W) 4999 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) CCS (10°36'11"N 66°59'26"W) 2118 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) CCS (10°36'11"N 66°59'26"W) 2055 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) CCS (10°36'11"N 66°59'26"W) 2260 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) CCS (10°36'11"N 66°59'26"W) 1933 mi
EWR (40°41'33"N 74°10'07"W) LIM (12°01'19"S 77°06'52"W) 3631 mi
IAD (38°56'40"N 77°27'21"W) LIM (12°01'19"S 77°06'52"W) 3506 mi
IAH (29°59'04"N 95°20'29"W) LIM (12°01'19"S 77°06'52"W) 3133 mi
ATL (33°38'12"N 84°25'41"W) LIM (12°01'19"S 77°06'52"W) 3176 mi
The "best" city option remains mixed and IAH represents there. Only GIG is really bad, and then only by ~280 miles. That's not terrible if you're putting together a top-notch route network headed south with the appropriate feed structure. DL/NW will suffer because they can't feed JFK sufficiently to make the thinner Europe runs as successful (IMO). That means they have to split them off to ATL and DTW. CO/UA can focus those runs on IAD/EWR, where they already have the feeder traffic and where they're an hour or three closer to Europe already and then use IAH for the bulk of the southbound flow. ATL is big and has some growth capacity, but to have both the Latin/South America and Europe operations concentrated in a single hub like that will make flow and feeds very difficult. The CO/UA approach will split those up and allow for smoother operations.
I don't see too many issues with this at all, other than what to do with DEN. I don't know how much traffic there really is connecting in the rockies that demands keeping that up.
S.