Mergers: ST Losses Dots On The Map
If DL and NW do in fact merger, which at this time looks more than likely, that merger probably will lead to a CO and UA merger. Assuming the new CO/UA ends up in *A, which is a safe bet, ST will be the loser. Instead of strengthen ST, the cascading after mass of the DL/NW merger will have a negative impact on the ST Alliance.
The DL/NW merger keeps both airlines in ST. For ST as a whole, this merger will mean little, and for ST, probably nothing would be gained. However, when CO leaves, COPA and Aerorepública, which is a de facto ST member given their codeshares with COPA, will no doubt go with CO. Excluding AeroMexico from the equation, ST would lose a major penetration into Central and South America.
Losing CO will eliminate the IAH Hub and, for those of us on the left coast, convenient access to many cities in Texas. After all, going from LAX, or SFO, for that matter, to Central and South Texas via SLC just does not cut it. For those that use CO as a ST Airline to Guam, they will need to fly NW out to Tokyo, then back. That is certainly not the most pleasant way to Guam.
So, while *A takes the IAH hub, and gains strength in Texas, Central and South America, and in the Pacific, at the expense of SkyTeam, AF sticks its head in the sand. After all, AF wants the DL/NW merger so badly that AF may even throw a billion dollars into the deal. Maybe somebody in Paris should look at the other repercussions of the DL/NW deal. On the other hand, AF, DL, and NW just may not care about SkyTeam in Central and South America and to Guam and its surrounding Islands. For the most part, AF, DL, and NW, keep silently chanting the airline merger mantra: “the flying public be dammed”. @:-)