Originally Posted by Mr. Vker

OT: I think Marilyn was wrong about Monty. This problem has to do with choosing one of three doors (one has a prize). Monty then eliminates one door (with no prize). Two doors are left-one with a prize. Monty gives you the opportunity to switch the door you chose. Does switching have any effect on your chances of winning? She says no, I say yes.

Here is my reasoning. Lets say there were a million doors. One with a prize. You select a door. Monty eliminates all doors but yours and one additional door. The odds of you picking the correct door up front were one in a million. That makes the odds of the remaining door having the prize 999,999 in a million to have the prize. You should switch.

In the actual example, you had a 1 in 3 chance of picking the correct door. That makes the door you can switch to 2 out of 3 chances of being right.

Does this make any sense?