Originally Posted by
NewbieRunner
I am suspicious by nature and having lived in the UK far too long I'm convinced that if things could go wrong they will sooner or later

.
Japanese work ethic is not what it used to be.
Also I wanted to impress on OP that if she/he is physically capable of carrying a 20kg suitcase for a short distance, she/he should just get on with it and take it on Shinkansen. After all we are talking about the central station of the Japanese capital and not about a deserted station with no lift in the middle of Cheshire countryside where I sometimes have to change trains on my way to the airport.

I'm also convinced that if something can go wrong, it will sooner or later.
Having spent most of last year confined to bed because of back problems, and knowing that the OP is thinking of taking a suitcase from somewhere in Tokyo to the Shinkansen, from there to a hotel in Nagoya and from there to the airport in Nagoya I'm hoping they will be encouraged to just ship it to the airport directly (my guess is that they will have done lots of shopping and it will be pretty full).
Far, far more people have had
real problems with their backs on FT than with Takkyubin (even perceived problems like yours

)
Even if things did 'go wrong', I'm under little doubt that the luggage would still make it back to CDG. Air France is undoubtably the weakest link in the transport logistic chain as far as the OP's luggage is concerned.