Between the last two major economic downturns, BA went through a process of expansion. Key historical points* during the 1990's were:

1991:

• Gulf War caused a significant drop in traffic, resulting in job losses and deferrals of several aircraft deliveries;
• In August 1991, BA committed £4.3bn expenditure on 15 Boeing 777 plus a similar number of options; 24 Boeing 747-400s and 11 ATP regional aircraft;

1992:

• BA Regional was established in March as a separate business to operate services out of BHX, MAN and Scotland;
• BA purchased Delta Air, a German regional airline, renaming it Deutsche BA in May;
• BA acquired the assets of Dan Air London for £1 in November. The charter operation of Dan Air was closed down but the LGW scheduled service were retained creating a broader network of BA European and Domestic routes;

1993:

• BA purchase a 49.9% stake in TAT, a French regional carrier;
• BA and USAir entered into an alliance whereby BA invested a 24.6% shareholding in this airline; codesharing on US routes began and three TATL routes were introduced for BA using US aircraft and crews;
• In March, BA purchased a 25% stake in Qantas;
• Also in March, BA Regional launched two class 763 TATL services from BHX, MAN and GLA to JFK and also MAN-LAX;
• In May, BA purchased Brymon in a joint venture with Danish carrier Maersk Air;

1994:

• Loganair became a BA franchise carrier in May;

1995:

• Manx Airlines became a BA franchise carrier in January, resulting in the expansion of BA's network in the UK and ROI;
• In February, GB Airways began operating its scheduled services under a franchise agreement with BA;
• BA sold its charter operation, Caledonian Airways to Inspirations;
• The first BA 777 was delivered from Boeing in November;

1996:

• In February, BA launched a major expansion of its LGW operation. Beginning in March, BA transferred its East and Central African services from LHR to LGW along with 4 Boeing 747-200 aircraft. A major change was announced on the LGW fleet with a two year plan for 757, 767, 747-400 and 777's to be based at this airport. New destinations were announced including Edinburgh, Kano, Kiev, Phoenix/San Diego, Stockholm and Zurich taking the total LGW network to 87 routes;
• In April, BA invited aircraft manufacturers to place tenders for 60 new regional jets, destined to replace its aging 737-200 and DBA fleets;
• BA entered into codeshare agreements with Canadian Airlines from June and America West from July;
• Danish carrier, SunAir joined the list of BA franchise partners;
• A major alliance with AA was announced in June;
• The remaining shares in TAT were purchased in August;
• Comair became a BA franchise partner in October;
• BA acquired french carrier, Air Liberté in December;

1997:

• All agreements with USAir were terminated in January and BA's shareholding sold two months later;
• BA's South American and Mexican services switched from LHR to LGW in March;
• BMed became a BA franchise partner in March;
• The Summer route expansion saw the LGW fleet of 737s increase in number from 27 to 33; LGW's long haul fleet stood at three 744s, eleven 747 classics, five 763s and eight DC-10s. BA and its partners were serving over 100 more destinations from LGW than from LHR;
• In April, Air Liberté and TAT became jointly managed in the run up to a full merger later in the year, as Air Liberté. Together they controlled 22% of the French domestic market;
• At precisely 1200 GMT, BA unveiled across a variety of international locations its dramatic new corporate identity, codenamed Project Utopia;
• BA Regional introduced the UK's first Embraer 145 jungle jet in August;
• In November, the creation of a BA owned low cost carrier was announced, under the code name "Operation Blue Sky"

1998:

• A severe ecomonic down turn in Asia led to the withdrawal of services to Seoul, Nagoya and Osaka;
• LGW's capacity increased by 25% with its network numbered at 120 routes;
• In April, Deutsche BA became a fully owned subsidiary of BA;
• Go began operating in May from STN to Rome and Milan;
• In May, a dedicated BA terminal opened at MAN;
• JAL, LOT and Finnair began codesharing with BA;
• BA announced its largest ever package of new aircraft orders (numerically speaking) in August comprising: 59 firm orders for A319/A320 plus 129 options; 16 firm orders plus 16 options for 777-200ERs; 5 existing orders for 747-400 were cancelled with the announcement that BA would not take on any future 747 aircraft once the existing orders had been fulfilled;
• oneworld was announced in September, initially made up by AA, BA, CP, CX and QF; Finnair joined in December;

1999:

• The oneworld alliance became effective on 1 February;
• In February, BA purchased a 9% share in Iberia as part of the Spanish airlines privatisation later that year; AA purchased 1%; IB announced its plan to join oneworld;
• BA took delivery of its 57th and final Boeing 747 in April;

Under Bob Ayling and his "future size and shape", BA undertook a major change in strategy from 2000. Part of this was to chase high yield premium fare customers and operating routes which maximise profitability and in doing so, BA invested heavily in new products such as New Club World, a refreshed First and the introduction of premium economy on its long haul routes. BA also relaunched its Concorde product in 2001.

Eddington (and arguably Walsh too) have continued with this strategy. BA responded to the impact its short haul business faced as a result of stiff competition from maturing low cost carriers. Very severe it was too and continues to be. Other full service European carriers in time followed BA's lead, only adding to the pressure on the profitability of BA's short haul business. Eddington also began to focus more on the core business, by cutting unprofitable routes, closing Air Liberté, selling DBA, Go and more recently BA's stake in QF. Under Walsh, BA's focus is sharper still as we see the termination of most of BA's franchise agreements. It could also be argued that BA stance to the proposed acquisition of IB was luke warm at best.

So if we are about to enter a global recession, my thoughts are that BA will probably stick to its existing strategy, possibly chopping few routes here and there that fail to maintain profitability and similarly expanding into more lucrative markets. Russia and China spring to mind.

If any airlines are forced to significantly alter their shape, I would expect AF and LH to be the ones to watch.


* shamelessly cribbed from Keith Gaskell's excellent book "British Airways: Its History, Aircraft and Liveries"