This all got a bit confused, so I started the calculations again for clarity. The only things that matter are: your value of an RDM in cents, and your additional enjoyment (in $ terms) of sitting in BF on the nonstop, or of sitting in F/BF on a one-stop, relative to flying coach. Posters above used a $1400 figure for the additional enjoyment of BF on the nonstop versus coach. I'm going to assume F/BF on a one-stop would be about a $1000 value in that case.
That takes the math to:
Option 1: fly coach nonstop
Cost $604, earn 22,328 miles and 9,924 EQM.
Option 2: upgrade nonstop
Cost $604 + $800 + 35000 miles, earn 22328 miles
Additional value (relative to option 1): $1400 (assuming that it's worth $700 each way to sit in BF rather than Y, and this is just a guess, the poster should choose his/her own value).
Additional cost, $800 + 35000 miles.
Net gain: $600 at cost of 35000 miles.
Option 3: fly BF nonstop in paid J
Cost $4900, earn 27290 miles and 13,645 EQM
Additional value (relative to option 1): $1400 extra enjoyment, 4,962 miles, and 3,721 EQM. Also extra flexibility (ticket is changeable, can be purchased last minute, ...)
Additional cost: $4296.
Deal: earning 4,926 RDM and 3,721 EQM at net cost of $4296 - $1400 = $2896. Terrible deal relative to option 2 unless you need the flexibility from purchasing this ticket.
Option 4: fly R via IAH/LAX
Additional value (relative to option 1): must be less than $1400 because it's not all BF and involves a stop. Let's say $1000.
Additional cost $2580 - $604 = $1976.
Additional gain 28,364 miles - 22,328 miles = 6,036 miles. Also a few bonus EQM for the longer trip via LAX: 390 of them. 4 extra EQP. And the $1000 of added enjoyment.
Net gain: 6,036 RDM and a few EQM at a cost of $976 (=$1976 - $1000). Terrible deal.
So, if you value BF at $1400 for the nonstop and $1000 via LAX/IAH, then the only options that make any sense are options 1 and 2. Option 2 is better if you value miles at less than $600/35000 = 1.72 cpm.
If you value BF more, say at $2000 for the nonstop and $1500 via LAX/IAH, all of options 2-4 look better relative to flying coach. The numbers become
Option 2: $1200 net cost vs 35000 miles lost (worth it if you value miles at less than 3.43 cpm)
Option 3: earn a few EQM and RDM at a net cost of $2296, still a terrible deal.
Option 4: earn a few EQM and RDM at a net cost of $476, still a terrible deal.
So, upgrading the nonstop is the only vaguely sensible option if it's available. And if it is, it's a straight question of 'is the added benefit to me worth more than 35000 miles and $800'. Nothing more complex than that.
The last thing to add is: if a standard BF award was available for 75K miles, then that would almost certainly be the best deal for this poster.
Cost (relative to flying coach): 75K miles + 22,328 miles foregone
Gain: $604 saved in cash, plus $1400 added value, or $2004.
Value in cpm: $2004 / 97,328 miles = 2.06cpm
This is usually the ordering of options for me:
standard award > paid coach > upgraded coach > paid J/F
Which is a good rule of thumb if you value miles in the 1.5 cpm range. It depends a little bit on seasonality (the awards look better in high season, and paid J can be a deal at the holidays).
Last edited by yellow77; Jan 17, 2008 at 7:59 am