I won't argue with you on cross-posting, I'll let mods deal with that.
If you do miss your 4:xx PM flight, you'll still be able to do everything you need if you're accomodated on the 6:xx PM flight. Find out when your car rental place closes and see if you may have to go there first before getting your luggage when you arrive at LAX.
However, you also have an option of taking a connecting flight through CVG, ATL, SLC and SAN. I'd look at weather to see which is better. ATL is always a good bet, as they have nearly hourly flights to LAX.
The upside to coming in later is that you'll probably have an easier time getting to your hotel (depending on where it is and what day you're flying in).