Originally Posted by
sbm12
I agree that it is a last resort. The right/wrong comment focuses on operating a company based on a plan that is obviously flawed, such as $25 oil. You are the one who suggested that this is the reason for B6's cash crunch
That the carrier hasn't managed to adjust to the change in reality is unfortunate. In most other industries, companies that declare bankrptcy never recover so well. For some reasons airlines are considered sacrosanct in the USA so they can't be allowed to fail despite their inability to operate under normal business rules. So if JetBlue were to declare bankruptcy they'll find a way out of it, though investors will still get hosed, and the government will ensure that they don't suffer too badly. The one thing I'm not sure of in B6's case is that they don't have union contracts they can renegotiate to reduce their costs, so that would be tough. I assume that most of the debt is secured by the aircraft, and most airlines have trouble operating without those, so that would be an interesting issue for B6 to face.
That's 600-800 TrueBlue points if I'm calculating correctly, right? That means you're flying ~30 r/t "long" flights purchased online, or spending a lot of money on the JetBlue AmEx card. That much travel/spending would be worth top level elite, so you're looking at ~300K RDMs on other carriers (150K BiS+ 150K bonus miles). The 300K miles would get you 6 transcons in slEasyPass or many more with standard rewards, or some number in between depending on your redemption pattern. The Carribean redemptions cost more on the other carriers, but you'd still probably come out ahead. Or you could buy a J RTW reward, something that you could not get from B6.
I am not in love with the legacy programs at all, but I do think that they are better than what TrueBlue offers.
Regarding B6's business plan, the $25 a barrel petroleum reference referred to their initial business and has been modified many times since their inception. As far as the current crisis, I think a lot of it had to do with frenetic growth and the kind of institutional inertia that sets into any corporate culture ("this has always worked, it'll keep working, etc.").
Under Dave Barger a lot of that has changed and the basics are now all pretty good except for the LF. Perhaps B6 needs to start overbooking to help foster higher LF's.
As far as my TrueBlue pts, the calculation is one award ticket equals essentially 25,000 miles as it would with a legacy frequent flyer program.
The only difference is that I never have to worry about needing to double my points as I would with any legacy frequent flyer program (a la CO "EasyPass," or whatever corporate euphemism they're using for it now.)
95% of my paid flights are transcon and I can achieve 96 pts with 4 round trips. I supplement the balance with my jetBlue Amex. And, no I don't fly 30 rt a year so the balance comes out of Amex Membership Rewards.
Again, the value of the B6 pts corresponds to the "standard" award levels with the legacies so there is no penalty for using my Amex MR pts on B6 vs. a legacy's ff program (the contrary, since I never have to worry about EasyPass).
Plus there is the fact that I can always get my first choice itinerary and that my family enjoys the comfort of B6 and my kids love the PTV.