I always thought the promotion that Delta had over the past years that rewarded you for flying x number additional segments than the ones you flew in the same period the previous year to be the smartest.
So many trips are arranged at the same time each year, and having a promotion giving bonus miles to everyone who registered, or you might not have had to register, I forget made the most sense. If the purpose is to increase traffic and fill seats giving you a bonus for flying over the previous years numbers is the best way, plus you don't have to "target", and nobody feels left out.
If as an airline I felt I had to target specific fliers I would probably target people living at airports where you have a surplus of empty seats, or where you were losing market share. I might also target people who in the past had flown a lot but had a lot fewer segments in the current quarter or year, thinking maybe they had defected to another airline, and the bonus might bring them back.
I think the airlines are spending way too much time targeting, I think they believe they can figure trends statistically to get the most profits. They should worry more about service, running on time and keeping the customer happy, as this will bring in more revenue than any magical formula. The mythical formula might increase earnings, but I don't think it will make a poorly managed company profitable.
After watching the "yield managment" theory and overselling planes, having to give away a lot of vouchers and hotel rooms I wonder if they are really making as much as it is costing them. If you give away a $400 voucher to someone to sell another $300 ticket, and the $400 voucher is used by the cutomer who would have paid in cash for a future ticket, is there really a gain in the long run?
With all the red ink flowing at the airlines there is some question. But there are so many other problems causing losses, it is hard to tell if targeted promotions, yield managment is helping the airline, or yet another bad managment decision by an industry losing so much money.