FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - The 'FUTURE OF BMI' thread, the LH takeover, & what it might mean for Diamond Club...
Old Dec 11, 2007, 8:10 am
  #16  
pauldb
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Programs: BA, IHG, 5C
Posts: 4,413
Hard to say. The call price could also be related to BD's performance, i.e. a set multiple of revenues or profits, perhaps with a minimum 40% above the put price.

In any case it would have to be higher than SMB's put price (the put price provides a floor value for him to exit, the call price a limit to the price LH have to pay).

In fact the put price wouldn't mean LH is getting an enormous bargain - it might be a price SMG decides to take. BTW, the telegraph says the put price rises with inflation, so I reckon it values the whole biz at £540m by next year.

I'd say BD's performance has probably been at the low end of what was expected in 1999 (to last yr revs grew from 905m from 613m but pretax profit to only from 30m from 11m). Most of the big airlines tend to be valued, very roughly at around 0.5x revenue so 540m for BD is not cheap. But that is offset by net cash of about 100m.

Independently, BD isn't worth as much in my mind as a major because it has a low net margin (less scale = higher operating costs as a % of revs). If LH threaten to walk away and BD stays independent, SMG will have trouble getting a 540m valuation (about 27x profit after tax). Hence the put valuation might be tempting.

On the other hand, LH might be reluctant to get BD at the moment, and SMG might wish to prove he can make a success of longhaul, so the two parties could agree to push back the puts/calls and alter their prices accordingly. The may be what the banks are looking at???
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