I think the original core premise of FF programs was, and is, still valid. Encourage and reward loyalty, etc. Not unlike businesses in other areas (like sub shops) that use punch cards (Your tenth one's free!).

Since seats are perishable, it looks even better when airlines yield-manage the bulk of the traffic into seats that would have gone unsold anyway.

The whole system might be sustainable indefinitely with if most miles were earned by flying. Have 97% of fliers earning at 1:1 (elites, after all, are a minority for a reason) and let hotels and rental cars do points but that's basically it. The way it used to be.

What seems to be throwing it out of whack is all the miles on the GROUND that airlines are selling with credit-card companies, long distance or even directly to the public.

I don't blame those who are accumulating them at all. But with things as they are now, airlines have every incentive to sell as many miles as they can and no incentive to worry about things like ratios of outstanding miles to available seats. Take the money now, worry about consequences later.

One other trend that seems to be building: "points" based reward programs that cap the value of tickets they'll give as awards. Capital One's MilesOne 20K award is zoned (bleah!) and capped at $360. The ticket is a "paid" ticket and gets no blackout dates or FF-availability restrictions, but the cap can be a problem for many people.

My overall response this year has been to downshift and go for gold-level status rather than platinum (My travel is mostly leisure, so it's easier to do that). I'm also trying to spend as many miles as I earn, so that the balance doesn't build.