Its points for me.

1000 nights - credit card nights (15*12) = 820/12 =68 nights/year.

I'll reach that by year 12 at my pace but I'll be well below 3 million points. Too many nights at 75-80/night hotels I guess.

Even with a room average of 125 that would be (125*1000*10=1.25million. Getting 1.75 million in "bonus" points seem unlikely to me).