gosh this takes me back--i used to fly twa jfk to lhr all the time in the 80s and received a very large number of free upgrades (in those days there were no evips for confirmed intl upgrades) but they would ONLY give them out if i was wearing a coat and tie (and asked in my nicest english accent). they told me once that was the rule, and after that i always brought 'em even for vacation trips!
as a result i've always been very sensitive to this issue but i am absolutely convinced that AA doesnt pay any attention whatsoever to how passengers are dressed in the premium cabins--just take a look around (and i'm the worst at this point, sadly).
since being EXP the only time i've been offered comp upgrades from business to first internationally, i've had to refuse them as mrs. soho was with me -- it has happened twice around xmas (and in both cases we were already evip'd into business).