As you say it varies by market.

I use the Exit Row seats as a judge to see how many other elites (granted cannot tell their tier) may be on a flight.

When there is only center exit row left, I assume there are lots of elites on the plane.

When I am the only one in an exit row, I feel pretty special (tho waiting for my upgrade to clear).

I also look at the 'premium' seats that are held back for tier fliers. On MD80s I know 9D is one of these seats. If empty, not may tier fliers!

MSP-ORD is one of the flights where I see loads of open exit row seats.

DFW-LAX (actually many ex-DFW trips) I see no open exit row seats.

YMMV!


On a 'true' vs estimate note, I spoke with a MSP manager recently who estimated we have 200 EXPs that are based in the MSP area. For a smaller station (ORD, DFW, MIA, STL, LGA flights) this is a pretty good number in my opinion.