Well, one man's cynicism/frustration (OP), is another man's benefit in having less competition for award seats (THIS poster!!).

The sentiments echoed by the OP are quite common these days from folks I'm acquained with. Instead of the perceived crapshoot of a capacity controlled, extra tax/fee laden airline ticket, these folks are opting for the guaranteed, no strings benefit like free gas or a 2% cash rebate or the Capitol One 'free' airline tickets (which is attractive for its simplicity, its surety, even though not such a good value!!).

So, as the mileage herd is being self-culled, there will be less warm bodies pursuing mileage award seats, hopefully making those still active in the mileage game, of having an incrementally better shot at award redemption.

Like others on this thread have observed, getting intl. F and J award seats is not only possible, but actually, quite probable, with the right mix of perseverence, date and routing flexibility, access to miles in multiple programs (think Starwood Amex), some top tier elite status (or maybe friends or family with said status), willingness to buy a cheap ticket to get to and/or from a gateway hub city, splitting up a group and meeting at final destination, always pumping CSrs to check partner carriers, knowing obscure routings (think SQ JFK-FRA or QF JFK-YVR or AF LAX-PPT or MH EWR-ARN or EK JFK-HAM)...and waa-laaa, U B upfront, baby!!!!!!!!