It's not an either/or proposition folks! Having electronic upgrades doesn't negate the paper if you want to "gift" the upgrade. The electronic version would provide an easier and much quicker way to get your benefits. They would eliminate buying upgrades while you wait, wait, wait for UA to ship the paper stuff. They would be available as quick as the computer systems detect you have flown another 10K miles. They would eliminate buying emergency upgrade certs. for use when you are rushing to catch your plane. And yes, you could have the electronic cert. issued as paper if you want to give it to someone else. Still not interested?

As for the chances of UA not collecting upgrade certs, I'd rather play the lottery