I hear what you're saying PHLGovFlyer. And of course we're all making our "best guess" without the benefit of real numbers. I'm an anesthetist by trade, and the algorithms we utilize in the OR follow the KISS principle. Start with the obvious and this will usually solve your problem. When that doesn't work, start looking at the less-obvious questions and don't be afraid to look outside of the bubble if you still don't have an answer.

I'm still bouncing around a lot of thoughts/ideas in my own mind. It stands to reason that BIS elites contribute some sort of a substantive revenue flow for any airline. But in the absence of a robust elite cadre to sustain revenue flows, what else might an airline do?

Of course downsizing reduces aggregate ASM and raises load factors. Rejiggering routes and A/C rotation removes other ineffiencies thus improving the bottom line. Might US be pursuing a strategy to be less reliant upon ( certain stratas of ) elites by rebalancing the product and cabin mix? I'm not saying that US wants elites to ditch, but is the boardroom calculus about satisfying all of your pax or simply satisfying enough elites to keep them on board with their higher revenue yield while allowing cost reductions and increased Ma and Pa Kettle volume to rush in with the tide preventing a revenue drought?

Looking at it this way might explain consistently strong earnings while the product languishes. It may not be about being "the best" as much as it's about being "good enough" to get by. So they shed lots of elites and replace a portion of them with elites who have different goals/expectations. Certainly explains why Tempe sometimes looks like underachievers. In any case, those benchmark "pacing rates" are most likely real and are based on growth from a lower aggregate base of elites. So a modest increase ends up looking like a nice % gain.

I don't know, I'm just talking BS off the top of my head. But I do know from years of working in the OR that the problem and an explanation is always right there in front of you. Just a matter of figuring out how to describe it to understand its function before the heart stops.

Time to go get a brew. ^

Barry