something else missing from the analysis are miles sold by airlines for cash, whether via credit card operators, to mortgage companies, etc. These also dilute the value of existing miles, even if the airline receives a fair compensation for them.

The number of miles outstanding at each carrier increases each year at a rate well in excess of the increase in award capacity. This is going to lead to a big problem.

Since I don't have status, miles are worth a little over a penny to me and I have therefor shifted to cash rebate credit cards. I still have them linked to iDine and still collect points but I am realistic about their value.