The only way US gets a China slot is if there is a set of circumstances that explicitly require the DOT to award a frequency to a carrier without--and that ATA does not foray back into the space or one of the atlantic bizjet operators (think Maxjet or EOS) does not get designs on the Pacific.

US does not (and presumably won't) even have the aircraft to fly to China for quite some time. Or any familiarity with trans-Pacific ops. If you look at the last award that UA won, the DOT is looking at these things, particularly aircraft selection.