Originally Posted by
phoenixstar
Obviously, walk-up fares on this route (which isn't presently serviced by any airline currently) would be in the $150-$200 range each way, and yes, these would be snatched up by business travelers.
For the general public it currently runs about $393 each way walkup on UAX through SFO or LAX. The current, negotiated, walkup fare for State of California employees on FAT-SMF is $170 each way using UAX connections. SMF-LAX, as a comparison, on UA is $116 each way for state employee walkup.
There is quite a bit of travel between Fresno and Sacramento, so much so that in the mornings it is unlikely that you could make it in the 3 hours you were mentioning as far as drive time goes. I know for my monthly trips up there, I would fly in a heartbeat rather than making that trek up the 99 if it were even available.
Highway 99 will also be a major construction zone for the next 5 or 6 years, slowing drive times. They are widening and replacing most of the highway from Fresno to Sacramento. About 6 or 7 months ago I got stuck in a 1 hour traffic jam north of Merced due to construction. I think 3 hour drive times will be optimistic for many years to come.
However, if WN were to move into FAT, and fly the routes I mentioned, they would be the only airline flying these particular routes (Other than express-jet, which just recently started service from FAT to ONT and SAN), and could gain valuable market share in a market of 1+ million starving for reasonable air travel.
If/when they opened at FAT I've always felt the routes would come from a list of PHX, LAS, SLC, OAK, LAX, SEA, RNO, SAN, and ONT. Most of those would provide good connections to the rest of WN's network and represent routes with good O&D out of Fresno.
One of the largest unserved routes out of Fresno is to Chicago. FAT-MDW would be nice but I doubt it would happen.
However, ever since WN decided to change strategy and start opening at major hub airports I've felt that it would be a number of years before they looked at a city like Fresno again.