A friend of mine (and his wife) were planning a trip to New Zealand in October. When I saw this going on last night I called him. We were both checking dates while chatting on the phone. Since he had been planning to go, he already knew which dates he wanted and booked them post haste. Then used 120K miles to upgrade to First and got it confirmed on the spot. I decided to use the same outbound flight as him since he flies international in Biz and First fairly often, and I thought I could "learn the ropes."

So, I booked the same outbound as him but will be coming back sooner. I am confirmed First on the return flight, but am waitlisted on the outbound. Being an idiot (i.e. not knowing any better) I called the Premier Exec line to look into getting confirmed First on the outbound. The agent didn't even react to the fare (if it was even displayed). I could have shifted the day, but didn't want to do so. The CSR told me that I was the first in queue for the upgrade. He said that the two seats that had been released were already taken - presumably by my friend. He said that if more seats open up then I will next in line to get them.

What do you think the likelihood of this is? Departure date is Tues the 2nd of October.

Since this is supposedly a fully refundable C ticket, does that affect my place in the waitlist line? How about being Premier Exec?

Thanks.