In the recent thread on the QF changes a.. well let's call it "lively debate" ensured regarding QF's FF and changes Vs. the Generosity of a FF program from a certain non-affiliated US airline.

Not wanting to jump into the debate side I decided to sit down and crunch some figures and share them with the forum.

The original assertion was that the average punter couldn't get 100,000 QF FF points in a year to secure the highest upgrade award of 90,000 points for a one way upgrade in zone 5.

I will extend this assertion somewhat to include equivalent status, status credits and SC/UC earning on QF and the equivalent (if any) in a generic US program (they are all fairly similar although I shall base it on the one I obviously know best).

Assumptions I shall make:

1. An average punter will fly discounted economy fares (we all know full fare/C/F is a different kettle of fish)
2. We won't include bonus points earning potential from cards, hotels etc. I will just compare paid flying.
3. Because the various programs are different one has to approximate various equivalencies.
4. I will assume a base member starting with 0 status/miles and try and adjust for status bonuses.
5. The QF program we know well:
Silver @ 350 SC's - 25% bonus miles
Gold @ 700 SC's - 50% bonus miles
Plat @ 1400 SC's - 100% bonus miles

Upgrade Credits (UC) - 1/450 SC's earned(using 1/1/04 rules as that was the base of the assertion)

6. Our "generic" US program:
Silver @ 25,000 miles/25 segments (25% bonus miles)
Gold @ 50,000 miles/50 segments (100% bonus miles)
Plat @ 100,000 miles/100 segments (100% bonus miles)

Upgrade credits: N/A, only domestic earned for elite levels excepting the 100,000 mark when some form or other of ug cert is provided, either 6 or 8.

Cost in miles to upgrade equivalent to QF zone 5 flying: 60,000 miles based on Australia-London via US although technically a australia->ORD/NYC fare would be equivalent to zone 5 and only require 30k miles to upgrade discounted Y->C.


Now. to the maths.

100,000 miles/points.

Flight equivalences.

To get 100,000 points on QF....

1. 100% domestic travel in the "triangle"
assume: MEL-SYD one way trips @ 1,000 points min earned and 10 SC's.
After 35 one way trips 35,000 miles silver status achieved
After 35 more one way trips, 700 SC's achieved, 35,000 miles earned + 25% bonus=78750 total.
After 15 more one way trips, 850 SC's achieved, another 15,000 miles earned with 7,500 bonus miles at Gold status.
Total: 101,000 miles.

Therefore you'd need to fly 85 one way trips to make 100,000 QFFF miles flying just domestic short one way hops. You would earn 1 upgrade credit and QF Gold status.

2. 50% domestic as above/50% international.
assume: international trips are zone 4 SYD-LAX in discount Y which we'll credit at 7500 miles and 40 SC's.

To simplfy this maths I'll assume half of the above figures for the domestic trips. So: 43 domestic one way trips, silver status and 44,750 total miles and 430 status credits.

To get to 100,000 miles (just over) this would be 6 more one way giving a total of 56250 miles (inc 25% silver bonus) and 240 SC's.

Total: 101,000 miles. 49 flights, 670 SC's, Silver status and one UC.

(phew this is hard work! )

ok, let's now assume totally flown international segments - all SYD-LAX as above, 7500 base miles, 40 SC's discount Y.

After 9 one way flights, you would have 360 SC's, silver status and 67500 miles. With the 25% bonus you'd need 4 more flights to obtain 37750 more miles.

Total: 12 flights, 520 SC's, 1 UG, silver status and 105,000 miles.

OK so that's QF with 3 extreme situations examined.

So let's try that US program.

For domestic sectors of a MEL-SYD length, we'll use that other program's minimum mile accural which is 500 miles. However this program ALSO awards status based on segment count.

Therefore after 25 one way segments you'd have 12,500 miles but silver status: 25% bonus kicks in.

After the next 25 one way segments you'd have 28,125 total miles and 50 segments = gold status and 100% bonus miles (double).

So, to make 100,000 miles you would then need a further 72 one way flights for a total of 122 segments at minimum mileage.

ADVANTAGE: QF (less flights of similar distance 85 vs. 122) to make 100,000 miles.

However at the 100 segment mark on the US program you would receive your uprgade certificates which would be equivalent to 6 (or 8) zone 5 upgrades on QF, thus equal to either 720,000 QF points (90k*8) or 3600 SC's(450*8) or another 294 (!) flights on QF.

Let's now try the 50% domestic vs. 50% international LAX-SYD flying...

Again, I'll use half the figure for the domestic value above. Therefore 61 flight sectors, 39,261 miles and gold status. To get over 100,000 miles you'd then need 5 one way flights each giving 15,000 miles (7500 flown plus 7500 bonus). Total: 114261 miles and 66 total flights.

ADVANTAGE: QF (49 flighs vs. 66).

However yet again the upgrade certs provided at the 100k level would make up for this.

And finally, all LAX-SYD flying:

After 4 flights: 30,000 miles and silver status.

After a further 3 flights: 52,500 flown miles (gold status), 58125 total earned miles.

After a further 3 flights you'd have: 75000 flown miles, 103125 earned miles and gold status.

Total: 10 flights.

Advantage: US program (10 flights vs. 12 and higher status level).

Now sure, we could go through this again using a K fare basis for domestic runs for QF, and QF would come out even better.

So what is the point of all of this?

Clearly, QF is based towards those flying higher yielding fares with the SC bonuses. It would take less "average" flying on QF though to get 100,000 miles except for the long haul example. However this is counted by the fact that most US programs (AA and UA certainly) give systemwide type upgrades at the 100k level that are equivalent to several times their equivalent value (ie: in mileage/UC's) on QF.

ergo.. your mileage may vary!!!

(Yes I am sure this is riddled with a few mistakes - it is very late in the night! I just wanted to try and put some figures to support the various arguments and let them speak for themselves rather than throwing opinions around willy nilly).

I hope someone out there finds this interesting!

------------------
RichardMEL, UA 1K
A Star Alliance Member.

[This message has been edited by RichardMEL (edited 07-06-2003).]