I'm playing the same game as the OP this year, but at AA.

I'm currently EXP there (and 2P on UA), but a change in job responsibilities will make 100k very difficult this year, so i'm looking at falling to PLT on AA. so, given that (and given that AA tends to soft-land, meaning i'll probably be platinum if i never fly them, and certainly gold due to million miler status), what do i do now?

the more i think about it, i believe that as a 50k flyer, i'm better off on UA than on AA. upgrades are getting so difficult even at the top tier that i'm only barely considering them when evaluating second-tier programs. that leaves the route network, the service, and the quality of the coach product. AA's route network is a bit better for me than UA's, but the combined UA/US/AC network from boston is very compelling. and E+ is a dealmaker -- it's better than coach, there's a lot of it, and it's available only to UA elites until checkin. this makes UA look better as a last-minute airline (something else i'll see more of...)

what i want from an elite program is priority treatment and a good shot at never flying middle seat on an airline that can support someone who flies to a wide variety of domestic destinations. (this includes the central and mountain timezones: scratch jetblue!)

that said, i'm still booking AA. my most recent booking, i was looking at CR7's from o'hare to texas and back, so i went with AA's MD80-MD80 connections thru DFW. next up: san diego. AA flies nonstop. this isn't going to be easy.... i MUST make sure i at least get to 2P again this year..