I'm new to FT, and have a couple of questions about the AS mileage program.

1. I'm MVP Gold, so I get put on the waitlist for upgrades sometimes, but often don't get make it to F. I also have my 4 yearly OW paper upgrades in hand still, which I believe I can use to confirm upgrade in advance. How can I tell in advance if my waitlist upgrade has a prayer of getting me into F, so I know whether to spend my paper upgrade or take a chance on upgrading off waitlist?
2. Do COS bonus miles count towards EQ?

Thanks! Sorry this is so long, I'm still figuring out the lingo!